Taipei, Aug. 15 (CNA) — Taiwan’s government has raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.45%, up from the earlier estimate of 3.1%, thanks to booming exports and strong private investment driven by global demand for artificial intelligence (AI).
At a press conference, Tsai Yu-tai (蔡鈺泰), head of the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS), said Taiwan’s economy has stayed strong despite U.S. tariff hikes and possible duties on semiconductors.
He explained that the upward revision was due to better global trade forecasts, eased concerns about AI-related risks, and U.S. policies that have sped up AI infrastructure projects. Issues that worried markets earlier this year—like cheaper AI computing from China’s DeepSeek and Nvidia chip cooling problems—have not slowed the global buildout of AI data centers. Supply shortages of high-end tech products have also been resolved, boosting Taiwan’s export outlook.
The U.S. has even relaxed some AI chip export restrictions, helping speed up AI data center construction and raising demand for equipment. This has encouraged companies to increase investment. DGBAS now expects Taiwan’s exports to grow 23.74% in 2025, much higher than the May forecast, and private investment to rise 9.89%. Taiwan’s exports are projected to hit US$589.2 billion in 2025, a 24% jump from last year, and increase slightly to US$602.1 billion in 2026.
However, domestic consumption is still weak. Tariff concerns have hurt the stock market, and uncertainty over car import duties has made people delay purchases. Because of this, DGBAS cut its 2025 private consumption growth forecast to 0.85%, the lowest in four years.
Looking ahead, GDP growth in 2026 is expected to slow to 2.81%. Still, supported by economic growth and a stronger Taiwan dollar, the country’s per capita GDP is forecast to pass US$40,000 for the first time, reaching US$40,019 in 2026.
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