5G Standalone (5G SA) and 5G Advanced are expected to be key focuses for communications service providers (CSPs) for the remainder of the decade as they deploy new capabilities to create offerings centered on value delivery rather than data volume.
The analysis is included among a wealth of statistical network insights in the November 2024 edition of the Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) Mobility Report, which extends the forecast period until the end of 2030.
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In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, mobile subscriptions are projected to grow by 2 percent annually from 2024 to 2030, reaching 830 million. Smartphone penetration is rising at 5 percent annually, driven by more affordable devices and expanding networks. This trend is transforming the region’s digital ecosystem, enabling wider access to advanced services such as mobile financial solutions and e-health.
2G and 3G subscriptions are expected to decline, as service providers in MENA are looking into sunsetting these networks to reallocate spectrum for 4G and 5G. By 2030, 4G will account for 37 percent of total subscriptions, while 5G will experience significant growth, making up 60 percent of total subscriptions at 500 million subscriptions. The expanding availability of 5G networks, coupled with growing consumer demand and more affordable devices, is expected to transform the region’s telecom industry over the next decade.
Ante Mihovilovic, Vice President and Head of Networks at Ericsson Middle East and Africa, says: “The November 2024 Ericsson Mobility Report expects communication service providers to shift their focus on offerings that center on value delivery rather than data volume. In MENA, the digital landscape is continuously evolving with fixed wireless access use cases and advanced services like mobile financial solutions and e-health gaining momentum. With 5G subscriptions expected to rise to 500 million by 2030, Ericsson is committed to supporting its partners to provide expanding connectivity and innovative technologies to meet the growing consumer demands and to enhance the digital experiences across the region.”
While the rate of global mobile network traffic data growth is declining – estimated at 21 percent year-on year for 2024 – it is still expected to grow almost three-fold by the end of 2030 from present day numbers.
The report highlights how early-mover service providers are already offering value delivery models based on differentiated connectivity – guaranteed uninterrupted high-end connectivity when you need it most – to create new monetization and growth opportunities.
Of about 320 CSPs currently offering commercial 5G services globally, less than 20 percent are 5G SA. The densification of mid-band and 5G SA sites is seen as a key catalyst to capitalize on the full potential of 5G, including programmable and intelligent network capabilities. Almost 60 percent of the 6.3 billion global 5G subscriptions forecast by the end of 2030 are expected to be 5G Standalone (SA) subscriptions.
Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) continues to grow in popularity globally as the second largest 5G use case after enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB).
The report also addresses how AI, including Generative AI Applications – already integrated across smartphones, laptops, watches and FWA products – could impact uplink and downlink network traffic, driving potential mobile traffic growth beyond current baseline predictions.
Other featured report statistics include the projection that global 5G subscriptions are expected to reach almost 2.3 billion by the end of 2024, amounting to 25 percent of all global mobile subscriptions. 5G subscription numbers are expected to overtake the global number of 4G subscriptions during 2027. On global mobile data traffic, 5G networks are expected to carry about 80 percent of total mobile data traffic by the end of 2030 – compared to 34 percent by the end of 2024.
The first 6G deployments are expected in 2030, building on and scaling the capabilities of 5G SA and 5G Advanced.
Ericsson will host Ericsson Mobility Report online seminars at 09.00 (CET) and at 18.00 (CET) on Tuesday, December 3. To join please register via this link.
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